Congressional testimonies on Oct. 26, 2011 before the House Homeland Security Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence and Subcommittee on Oversight, Investigations, and Management.
Dr. Lawrence J. Korb, Center for American Progress Action Fund
It is imperative that the United States not overreact but respond rationally and effectively… In recent years, Iran has repeatedly worked against the interests of the United States and the international community. In addition to this most recent plot—Iran’s boldest but also most poorly executed effort to harm the United States and its allies—Iran is a known sponsor of terrorism and has pursued an illicit nuclear program in defiance of the international community….The question now facing the United States is how best to respond. Over the past two weeks, it has been gratifying to hear warnings from both sides of the aisle about the perils of reckless military action….In the past, unthinking military action by the United States has strengthened Iran’s hand.
Iran is perhaps the clearest winner from our mindless, needless, senseless invasion and
occupation of Iraq. The war allowed Iran to capitalize on the overwhelming anti-American sentiment generated throughout the Arab and Muslim world by our invasion of Iraq under false pretenses. Moreover, because Iran owns one of the strongest militaries in the Middle East, any conflict with Iran would likely be drawn out and costly in both blood and treasure, even greater than the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
On the surface, the Iranian plot to conduct a terrorist attack on American soil may give the illusion of a strengthened, emboldened Iran. In reality, the opposite is true. Iran has been tremendously weakened over the past two years by the Obama administration’s successful efforts to muster international support for increased sanctions against the country. The Iranian government is divided, widely viewed as illegitimate by its people, and isolated internationally. Moreover, Iran’s economy is in shambles and its nuclear program has stalled, partly as a result of the sanctions.
The clumsy and, frankly, bizarre plot to assassinate the Saudi ambassador is a symptom
of Iran’s desperation. It shows a country resorting to asymmetrical methods because it
has been weakened economically and militarily and divided politically. While the United States should not take any options off the table in responding to Iranian aggression, a military strike would likely be counterproductive. Iran is plagued by internal unrest, and an American attack would no doubt unify the country.
Matthew Levitt of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Terror as a Tool of Foreign Policy:One might assume Iran would behave more cautiously today, at a time when it has come under increasing international pressure over its rumored pursuit of nuclear weapons, its suppression of human rights at home, and its support of terrorism abroad. Indeed, the U.S. government designated the Quds Force as a terrorist group in 2007 for providing material support to the Taliban, Iraqi Shiite militants, and other terrorist organizations. Most counterterrorism experts, myself included, expected that future acts of Iranian terrorism would occur in places like Europe, where Iranian agents have long targeted dissidents, and not in the United States, where carrying out an attack would risk a severe countermeasures, including the possibility of a U.S. military reprisal had the attack been successfully executed and linked back to Iran….
The timing of this plot suggests that Iran feels itself under increasing pressure, both from the international community (led by the United States) and from the regional alliance of Sunni states in the region (led by Saudi Arabia). Intriguingly, the plot seems to have been launched shortly after the Saudi-led military intervention in Bahrain against Shiite protesters to which Iran objected loudly but was unable to affect.
According to press reports, a Saudi official alleged that Gholam Shakuri was "an important Quds Force case officer who had helped organize militant Shiite protesters in Bahrain." According to this Saudi official, "Shakuri was among the Iranians who met Hasan Mushaima, a radical Bahraini Shiite cleric, during a stopover in Beirut last February, when Mushaima was on his way back home to lead protests in Bahrain."
General John M. Keane, US Army (retired)
The Iranian bungled operation to use proxies to assassinate the Saudi Arabian Ambassador to the United States and to purposefully plan the operation inside the United States is a stunning rebuke to the Obama administration’s policy of negotiation and isolation with the Iranians. Indeed, Republican and Democratic administrations since 1980 have failed to deal effectively with the harsh reality that Iran is our number
one strategic enemy in the world. Frankly, the Iranians stated as much in 1980, that the United States was the enemy of the Islamic Revolution and their intent was to drive the United States out of the region. Therefore, they have been systematically killing us for over 30 years….
Moreover we must ask ourselves has U.S. policy with respect to Iran been working? We appear to have a policy of rhetorical condemnation when the Iranians engage in behavior adverse to the US interests, we also engage in negotiations, which are on again off again, while the Iranians continue to pursue nuclear weapons. We have imposed some limited sanctions on the Iranians and attempt to isolate them in the world which 6
as best as we can tell also has had no impact on their pursuit of nuclear weapons or their sponsorship of terrorism.
We also must admit that the Iranians are not without their own challenges. Having two fledgling democracies on their borders in Iraq and Afghanistan is a huge geopolitical threat to their tyrannical control of their own population and preservation of their regime. The Arab Spring is a repudiation of radical Islam, indeed, the people in the streets are seeking political reform, social justice and economic opportunities which
are the mainstream of western democracies. Certainly the Iranians are attempting to take advantage of the opportunities the social unrest of the Arab Spring provides but no one is demonstrating on behalf of their flawed values. Losing a state sponsored terrorist like Ghadafi is a setback as is the upheaval in Syria, their number one ally in the region.
All that said, it is time to review our strategy for Iran against the harsh reality that despite our rhetoric, attempts to negotiate, isolate and sanction, the fact is the Iranians continue to use their proxies against US interests and continue to pursue nuclear weapons. Therefore, one must conclude the obvious that, our policy has failed and failed, miserably. What can we do? First and foremost begin to treat Iran as the strategic enemy they truly are. And, as such, develop a strategic competitive framework that counters every major interest the Iranian regime engages in.