Iran Nuclear Plan: U.S. Officials React

Question: Iran has not formally signed it. The foreign minister, Javad Zarif, is already questioning the U.S. description of it. Do you have a real deal here?

 

Blinken: We do, but we have to dot the I’s and cross the T’s. And that’s exactly what we’re going to do over the next couple of months. You’ll recall that we have until June 30 under the extension of the interim agreement to see if we can complete comprehensive deal. And what we have now in place is the foundation for that deal, agreement on the basic core elements. And it will now take a couple of months to see if we can put this in a comprehensive document that has all the details in it. That’s going to take some work.

 

Question: We should mention that for a decade, Iran’s breakout time, the time needed to make a bomb, will be extended. There will be inspections for well over a decade. There are many other provisions. Sanctions are listed. There’s a provision though that reduces the amount of uranium, enriched uranium that Iran will have on hand. It’s not clear to me though if uranium is being taken out of Iran or left in Iran. What’s happening to it?

Blinken: Well you are exactly Steve. And that aspect of the deal is critical. Right now Iran has about 10,000 kilograms of up to five percent low-enriched uranium. It has committed to reduce that stockpile to up to 300 kilograms. In other words, a cut of about 98 percent of its stockpile. What happens to the remainder of that stockpile is still up for decision. It could be shipped out of the country, it could be diluted. But the bottom line is that that stockpile goes way way way down and as a result, the breakout time, the time it would take Iran to rush to enough material for a bomb goes way up to a year or more.

 

Question: But the stockpile might remain in Iran somewhere you’re saying.

 

Blinken: Well it is possible it could, but diluted so that it can’t be used to make material for a bomb.

 

Question: The next question, which of course is on the minds of Israel and many critics of this deal is that at the end of 10 years, Iran would be poised to resume its nuclear activities. Is that the case?

Blinken: Well, first of all, if there’s no deal, Iran could do that tomorrow. And indeed probably would do that tomorrow. If the deal collapsed for whatever reason, there is a good chance Iran would rush to build more and more centrifuges and get its capacity up to industrial strength. What happens under this deal, assuming it gets completed over the next several months, is that for at least ten years, if Iran does not do that, the various limitations on its program, many of them will extend beyond ten years. For example, 15 years to cap its stockpile. It won’t enrich about 3.5 percent. No new enrichment facility. So everything would be at this Natanz facility. Meanwhile, the extraordinarily intrusive inspections that are part of this deal would continue for 20 or 25 years. So this is phased over an extensive period of time.

 

Question: So at the end of 10 years, it is not like everything stops. That’s your point.

 

Blinken: Correct, and indeed the inspection piece is absolutely critical. And as the president described it yesterday, what we’ve achieved with the inspections with the access is unprecedented.

 

Question: If Iran violates this deal, next year, two years from now, would the sanctions automatically snap back, the sanctions that are going to be lifted.

 

Blinken: Yes, there is going to be automaticity in the so-called snapback. If there is a violation or if Iran reneges on its commitments, what we’d be doing is suspending – not ending – the sanctions. They would only be suspended, first of all, if Iran makes good on its commitments under the deal. And then, because they would be suspended, not ended, if Iran violated the deal, they could be snapped back.

"The key parameters established today lay the groundwork for achieving the P5+1’s objective of blocking Iran’s four pathways to nuclear weapons: the two uranium pathways through Iran’s Natanz and Fordow enrichment facilities, the plutonium pathway at the Arak reactor, and the covert pathway.

 

America’s leading nuclear experts at the Department of Energy and its national labs and sites were involved throughout these negotiations, evaluating and developing technical proposals to help define negotiating positions in support of the US delegation. As a result, I’m pleased to say that we are very confident in the technical underpinnings of this arrangement.   

 

Iran’s current breakout timeline of two to three months will be expanded to a minimum of a year, for at least the next ten years.  Its stockpile of enriched uranium will be reduced by 98 percent, leaving it with just 300 kg of 3.67 percent uranium, for the next 15 years.

Iran’s installed centrifuges will be reduced by two thirds, leaving it with just over 5,000 operating IR-1 centrifuges at the outset of the agreement at Natanz – its only enrichment facilty. The underground facility at Fordow will be converted to an international physics center and stable isotope production facility with no enrichment, no enrichment R&D, and no fissile material. 

 

Iran’s enrichment R&D will be significantly limited relative to their current activity and plans, during the first 10 years.  In particular, full cascades of its most advanced centrifuges will not operate in the first ten years.

 

Iran’s plutonium pathway to a nuclear weapon, the Arak research reactor, will be redesigned to minimize plutonium production. The P5+1will apply the highest technical standards to finalizing with Iran the new reactor design that does not produce weapons-grade plutonium under normal use, with a plutonium pathway breakout timeline of several years. Iran will ship all Arak used spent reactor fuel out of the country for the lifetime of the reactor. For at least 15 years, Iran will not reprocess any used nuclear fuel or conduct any reprocessing R&D – steps necessary to extracting plutonium for use in a weapon – and Iran will not build any additional heavy water reactors – the types often associated with producing weapons-grade plutonium.

 

Finally, Iran has agreed to extraordinary and comprehensive transparency and IAEA inspections, providing an effective deterrence against covert pathways to a bomb. The enhanced transparency measures will build confidence in Iran’s peaceful intentions for a quarter century and beyond.

 

I want to thank the Head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran Ali Salehi (MIT PhD ’77) for his partnership in discussing the draft technical dimensions that will be essential to reaching a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA). I deeply appreciate his professionalism, candor, and unwavering commitment to analytical rigor.

 

However, our work is not done until the JCPoA is finalized by the end of June, and we begin implementation. We will work closely with our P5+1 partners, as well as in consultation with Members of Congress and the scientific community, to ensure Iran’s nuclear program will remain exclusively peaceful.

 

Certainly, there will be many opinions expressed about the merits of this understanding. I want to be clear – the world should also judge the scientific and technical dimensions of the parameters for a JCPoA as they contribute to halting the possible proliferation of nuclear weapons.  I, along with my DOE colleagues, am committed to seeing this to a successful conclusion."

“From the outset of this Administration, President Obama has made preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon a national security priority of the highest order.  To address this threat, we have worked together with Congress and our international partners to establish and implement the most comprehensive set of economic sanctions in history.  These sanctions helped bring Iran to the negotiating table to engage in serious diplomacy to address the world’s concerns about its nuclear program. 

 

Today, we and our partners in the P5+1 and the EU have reached a major milestone: a political framework for a Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action regarding Iran’s nuclear program that will close off every pathway for Iran to develop a nuclear weapon and will ensure that Iran’s nuclear program will be used exclusively for peaceful purposes.

 

In return, the P5+1 have agreed to relieve nuclear-related sanctions on Iran in phases, subject to verification that Iran has taken agreed steps with respect to its nuclear program.  This is not a framework based on trust, it is based on unmatched verification.

 

If Iran fails to abide by its commitments, the sanctions relief is reversible.  And we will continue to use all of our available tools, including sanctions, to counter Iran’s support for terrorism, human rights abuses, and destabilizing regional activities. 

 

While this is an historic step, as the technical negotiations with Iran continue, it is important to underscore that an agreement will only be reached if it meets the President’s commitment to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.  If we are able to reach such an agreement, the Treasury Department looks forward to supporting a strong and lasting understanding that will settle one of our greatest security threats.”